Todd Zola, FantasySep 3, 2024, 08:29 AM ET
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- Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
- Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Dealing in the desert
The Arizona Diamondbacks are atop the NL Wild Card chase and within striking distance of the NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers. Their league-leading offense is primarily responsible, but you can't win a championship without pitching.
Fronting the rotation is RHP Zac Gallen. Gallen is having an off year but, come playoff time, he has the experience and ability to match up with the opposing ace. The rotation recently received a huge boost with the returns of RHP Merrill Kelly and LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. There has been no sophom*ore slump for RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who has been consistently reliable all season.
Rounding out the rotation is RHP Ryne Nelson. The 26-year-old is fanning more while walking fewer batters than last season. His repertoire hasn't changed, but he has added a tick of velocity and is exhibiting better control and command.
Nelson was earmarked to be the Diamondbacks No. 5 starter, but with all of the injuries experienced by the rotation, he became an integral cog, keeping the team afloat until reinforcements arrived. Nelson's 4.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are close to league-average, while his 19.6% strikeout rate is below par. However, Arizona is 14-11 in his 25 outings, which is excellent for a hurler expected to fill a back-end role.
On Tuesday, Nelson (19.9% rostered in ESPN leagues) draws a road start against the San Francisco Giants. It's a favorable matchup with Nelson squaring off against the lineup sporting the seventh-lowest wOBA and 14th-highest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill.
Everything else you need to know for Tuesday
Two games which would typically have been played on Tuesday were part of the Labor Day schedule, leaving a rare 13-game Tuesday slate. Action begins at 6:35 p.m. ET with the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Chicago White Sox. Rookie LHP Cade Povich (0.8% rostered) will take the hill for the home team. Povich has struggled in his rookie year and normally wouldn't merit a mention, but he's facing a historically poor White Sox team. Chicago is challenging the record for losses in a season, currently standing at 120 by the 1962 New York Mets. (Perhaps even more dubious is this ditty from colleague Joe Orrico who points out, "The White Sox have to go at least 5-19 over their final 24 games to avoid winning fewer games this season than they did during the shortened 2020 season.") Back to Povich, he has recorded a 7.11 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP in four starts spanning 19 innings since the break, but the White Sox offense has been a panacea for many pitchers this season.
Tuesday's top ranked streaming candidate is third overall on the slate. It's Mets LHP David Peterson (20.6% rostered), who will face the Boston Red Sox. This is an intriguing matchup with both clubs playing better on the road, despite having distinctive home venues that should generate an advantage. That said, the driving force of Peterson's elevated ranking is that he's facing the lineup leading MLB in strikeouts versus left-handed pitching. Peterson is coming off a solid August during which he posted a 1.86 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, albeit with a pedestrian 27 punchouts over 38 2/3 stanzas.
Minnesota Twins RHP David Festa (3.6% rostered) enters Tuesday's road date with the Tampa Bay Rays on a high note. Last time out, Festa logged his first ever quality start, tossing six stanzas while allowing just two earned runs to the Atlanta Braves. Festa rung up seven hitters with only one free pass. The Rays strike out at the league's sixth highest-rate versus right-handers, fueling the second-lowest wOBA in those games.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jake Burger (MIA, 3B -- 45%) vs. Patrick Corbin
Jorge Soler (ATL, RF -- 48%) vs. Kyle Freeland
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL, 1B -- 35%) vs. Nick Nastrini
Taylor Ward (LAA, LF -- 38%) vs. Walker Buehler
Tommy Edman (LAD, 2B -- 23%) at Reid Detmers
Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH, 2B -- 45%) at Max Meyer
Daulton Varsho (TOR, LF -- 35%) vs. Tyler Phillips
Zach Neto (LAA, SS -- 21%) vs. Buehler
Connor Norby (MIA, 2B -- 15%) vs. Corbin
Eloy Jimenez (BAL, DH -- 21%) vs. Nastrini
Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday
Brenton Doyle (COL, CF -- 60%) at Chris Sale
Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 56%) vs. Paul Skenes
Triston Casas (BOS, 1B -- 56%) at David Peterson
Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 79%) vs. Skenes
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 73%) at Andrew Heaney
Nico ho*rner (CHC, 2B -- 89%) vs. Skenes
Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 83%) vs. Skenes
Isaac Paredes (CHC, 3B -- 82%) vs. Skenes
Brice Turang (MIL, 2B -- 68%) vs. Steven Matz
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 82%) at Chris Bassitt